WTO says global goods trade growth exceeds expectations in Q1

This file photo taken on Jan. 14, 2026 shows a port in Singapore. (Photo by Then Chih Wey/Xinhua)

GENEVA, July 31 (Xinhua) --The World Trade Organization (WTO) released the latest data on Friday which showed that global merchandise trade growth exceeded expectations in the first quarter of 2026, as surging trade in electronic components related to artificial intelligence (AI) offset the negative impact of the Middle East conflict.

According to the data, the seasonally adjusted volume of world merchandise trade rose by 1.9 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.2 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of this year.

In value terms, global merchandise trade increased by 2 percent from the previous quarter and by 11 percent from the same quarter of 2025.

The year-on-year growth rate recorded in the first quarter of 2026 is particularly noteworthy, given that trade growth in the first quarter of 2025 had been largely driven by front-loading of imports in North America ahead of expected tariff hikes.

The robust trade in AI-related electronic components more than offset the adverse effects of the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, including disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and slower GDP growth in net fuel-importing countries due to higher energy prices.

While no specific data are available on global trade volumes of AI-enabling products, their US dollar-denominated trade value surged by over 40 percent year-on-year in the first quarter.

The conflict has severely hit merchandise trade in the Middle East. The region's seasonally adjusted export and import volumes dropped by 9.7 percent and 11.9 percent year-on-year, respectively, in the first quarter, and even sharper declines are expected for the second quarter.

At the same time, AI-related investment spending lifted trade volumes in Asia during the first quarter. Asia's seasonally adjusted exports and imports were up 12.9 percent and 14.6 percent year-on-year, respectively. Much of Asia's trade expansion came from intra-regional circulation of AI-enabling goods.

In North America, first-quarter exports rose by 7.0 percent year-on-year, while imports fell by 10.7 percent year-on-year.

The WTO expects that the next quarter's trade data will more fully reflect the disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. ■

This file photo taken on Jan. 14, 2026 shows a port in Singapore. (Photo by Then Chih Wey/Xinhua)